Imagine someone with 5 million TL.
Last year they were looking at homes with that money. This year they’re still looking. But looking is all they’re doing.
Ask them and they’ll tell you homes are expensive. Yet the numbers say something else: adjusted for inflation, housing in Türkiye is cheaper than it was a year ago. Even so, that person isn’t buying.
To me, that’s the most interesting part of the August data.
The numbers first
According to data TÜİK (TurkStat) released on 17 September, 127,410 homes were sold in Türkiye in August. That’s a 14.7% drop on the same month last year. Just over 950,000 homes were sold in the first eight months of the year, which is also 6.8% behind last year.
We could stop here, say “the market is slowing” and move on. But split sales in two and the picture changes.
Sales made with a loan, that is, mortgaged sales, rose 7.2% in August. Over the first eight months of the year, they’re up 27.6%. The side that’s falling is non-mortgaged sales. This group, which TÜİK calls “other sales,” fell 18.3% in August.
So it isn’t families buying with a mortgage who are behind the slowdown. It’s buyers who don’t use credit. My reading is that cash buyers and people buying as an investment make up a large share of this group.
Now let’s look at prices. The TCMB (Central Bank) Residential Property Price Index rose 23% year on year in August. Annual inflation over the same period was 31.5%. By the TCMB’s calculation, the real change in house prices was minus 6.5%.
Here’s what that means in everyday life: a typical home worth 5 million TL last year is worth roughly 6.15 million TL today. The owner thinks, “I made 1.15 million.” But over the same period, prices in general rose 31.5%. Those 5 million are worth around 6.6 million TL today. There’s a gain on the price tag and a loss in purchasing power.
So if homes are getting cheaper in real terms, why aren’t cash buyers coming?
Where is the cash waiting?
There’s no single answer. But I’d like to talk about a few reasons I think carry a lot of weight.
The first is simple: the cost of waiting has gone down. The TCMB held its policy rate at 37% on 10 September. The average rate on 1–3 month TL deposits at banks was around 37% at the start of September. Annual inflation is 31.5%. Roughly speaking, someone keeping their money in the bank can earn a little above inflation before tax.
When the real value of a home is falling and money in the bank is at least not melting away, saying “I won’t rush” seems a perfectly rational response to me.
Gold tells a similar story. A gram of gold was around 5,174 TL on 30 September 2025. A year later, it’s around 6,566 TL. That’s an increase of close to 27%: a little below inflation, but ahead of housing. (The periods don’t match exactly; this is a rough comparison.)
The second reason is memory. After the pandemic, housing gained value far above inflation. Investors who bought homes then made money, and that memory is still fresh. But since 2024 they’ve been living through the opposite: the price tag goes up while real value falls. An investor who has been wrong once moves more slowly on the next decision. That’s one of the oldest rules of human behaviour.
The third is the expectation of rate cuts. Everyone is talking about rates coming down at some point. The plan in a cash buyer’s head is often this: “While deposit rates are high, I’ll keep my money in the bank. Once rates start falling, I’ll take a look.”
That plan carries a risk. I’ll come back to it below.
Who is the mortgage buyer?
I think it would be wrong to read the rise in mortgaged sales as “credit got cheaper and everyone’s rushing in.”
According to the TCMB’s weekly data, the weighted average interest rate on housing loans was around 42% in mid-September. At that rate, the monthly payment on a 2.5 million TL, 10-year loan comes to roughly 89,000 TL.
Someone willing to take on that payment is probably not someone who can afford to wait. It’s the family that’s getting married, having a child, or finding the rent harder to manage each time it’s renewed. Incidentally, according to TCMB data, new tenant rents rose 26.4% year on year in August.
The mortgage share is also still small. In August, about 17 out of every 100 homes sold were bought with a loan. In the same month last year, that figure was around 14. In other words, five out of six homes still change hands without a mortgage.
We often see a similar split in the field. On one side, the investor saying, “Let’s wait a bit and see.” On the other, the family that has worked out its monthly payment to the last kuruş, made its decision and is just looking for the right home.
Picturing the number
In the first eight months of the year, the number of homes sold without a mortgage fell by about 110,000 compared with the same period last year.
- Lost non-mortgaged sales: about 110,000 homes
- Reference home value: about 5 million TL (assumption)
- Approximate total: 550 billion TL, around 11 billion dollars at today’s exchange rate
This is a rough calculation. We don’t know the real average value of those homes, and it wouldn’t be right to say all that money is sitting ready somewhere. But it matters for understanding the scale: roughly half a trillion lira that went into housing in this period last year is somewhere else this year. In deposits, in gold, in foreign currency, or simply waiting.
I think the real question is this: under what conditions does this money come back?
How I read the picture
I don’t read this picture as “the market has stopped.”
The market hasn’t stopped. Its composition has changed.
In recent years, investment money largely carried sales volumes. Now buyers who need a home form the backbone, but cash still sets the volume. Buyers who need a home form the base. Cash sets the speed of the market.
There’s a good side to this too. A market dominated by buyers who need a home is less exposed to speculative price jumps. Prices are shaped more by real purchasing power.
What could happen next?
I see three different paths here.
My base scenario: if rates stay close to these levels for a while longer and inflation slowly eases, cash buyers may stay cautious. In that case, it wouldn’t be surprising for sales volumes to stay below last year’s and for real prices to move sideways or slightly down.
The positive scenario: if inflation falls clearly, rate cuts begin and deposit returns drop below inflation, some of the waiting money could start moving. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see upward pressure on prices in areas with limited supply. This is where the risk in the cash buyer’s plan lies: if everyone waits for the same signal, everyone moves at the same time when it comes.
The risk scenario: if inflation stays higher than expected, for reasons such as energy prices, and tight monetary policy lasts longer, even the mortgage buyers who are keeping the market going today could come under strain.
What it means for real estate agents
The question in conversations with investor clients has changed. Instead of “Are homes expensive or cheap?”, we need to talk about “Where is your money right now, and what is it really earning you after inflation?” An agent who can put deposits, gold, rental yield and the real change in house prices on the same table is far more valuable in an investor’s eyes than someone who just shows listings.
On the seller’s side, the buyer profile is changing. As mortgage buyers gain weight, a home’s saleability shifts a little too: Does the home qualify for a mortgage? Does it have an occupancy permit (iskân)? Will the bank’s valuation support this price? If the answer to these questions is “no,” that home is closed off from the start to the most willing buyers in today’s market.
Let me leave you with one suggestion for this week: for every home in your portfolio, answer the question “Can this home be bought with a mortgage, and will the valuation support this price?” and share the answer with your seller.
In the coming months, I’ll be watching less the total number of sales and more when non-mortgaged sales start to recover. Because when that money comes back, it will set the pace of the market.
Data I drew on for this article
- TÜİK – Housing and Workplace Sales Statistics, August 2026 (17 September 2026)
- TCMB – Residential Property Price Index and New Tenant Rent Index, August 2026
- TÜİK – Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (3 September 2026)
- TCMB – Monetary Policy Committee decision (10 September 2026) and weekly interest rate statistics